Bitcoin’s Last Push for a Local Top?

BTC/USD
+1.38%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

Add to Watchlist

Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio

Type:

BUY
SELL

Date:

Amount:

Price

Point Value:

Leverage:

1:1
1:10
1:25
1:50
1:100
1:200
1:400
1:500
1:1000

Commission:

Create New Watchlist
Create

Create a new holdings portfolio
Add
Create

+ Add another position
Close

Two weeks ago, see here, we showed, by using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), that a local top for Bitcoin was approaching and found,

“[it]

Fast forward, and the cryptocurrency only closed below the 20-d SMA once on November 21. Thus, it gave a first warning, but it never closed below the more critical $34118 level, so we remained long. And remember, price levels are one’s trade-triggers. Not opinions, sentiments, divergences, etc. Then, on November 24, BTC moved above the November 9 high. Thus, with the continued grind higher, albeit overlapping, BTC is now in that “”; the alternative has become our primary. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. The daily chart of BTC with several technical indicatorBTC/USD-Daily ChartThe critical part is the word “.” Namely, BTC is likely forming an ending diagonal (ED) 5th wave. Red W-v is subdividing into five smaller (green) waves, with W-1 and W-2 complete and W-3 underway. In an ED, the 3rd wave often targets the 1.236x Fibonacci extension of W-1, measured from the W-2 low, whereas the 4th and 5th waves often and ideally target the 0.618 and 1.618x extensions.

Thus, W-3 should ideally reach around $39500, then a pullback for W-4 to ~$37750 followed by the last hurray -W-5 of W-v of W-1- to ideally ~$41050. The technical indicators will then be set up similarly to the mid-February (black) W-1 high. Like then, we should expect the current (black) W-1 to top out as well and the (black) W-2 to ideally the 50-62% retracement of W-1 at $31-33K should commence before the W-3 to most likely new ATHs kicks in. Note the previous W-2 – the March low- was also a 62% retracement.

As you may recall, we have been Bullish on BTC for quite some time, and our prognostications in recent updates have continued to come to fruition. However, our Bullish scenario is entirely invalidated below $25K. This price level is our insurance level to prevent potentially more extensive havoc on our portfolio. However, only when that happens will we change our overall, longer-term Bullish POV, which BTC is proving more and more correct for each update we provide in that,

“.”

Source